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Recently, renewable energy including hydroelectric power, is gaining relevance. Hydropower plant operation is influenced by many factors, so risk assessment becomes a key process to schedule maintenance and guarantee the production of the necessary amount of energy. We define a methodology for risk analysis considering failure processes and repair actions, and based on the definition of component and subsystem hierarchy, interdependencies, failure and repair parameters. Hierarchy higher levels are modelled by Fault Trees, while lower levels are modelled by a dependency graph. Component Health Status (CHS \(^{\copyright }\) ) is a wear index evaluated by experts, from which failure and repair distributions are derived through a fitting procedure. Producibility levels and risk matrix are the output of our methodology, which is applied, as a case study, to a simplified hydropower plant.

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Risk Assessment Models in Hydroelectric Plants

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Davide Cerotti,
  • Lavinia Egidi,
  • Daniele Codetta-Raiteri,
  • Marzio Alfio Pennisi,
  • Giuliana Franceschinis,
  • Andrea Bobbio,
  • Luigi Portinale,
  • Marco Cappicciola,
  • Edoardo Martino L’Aurora,
  • Noemi Silicato

摘要

Recently, renewable energy including hydroelectric power, is gaining relevance. Hydropower plant operation is influenced by many factors, so risk assessment becomes a key process to schedule maintenance and guarantee the production of the necessary amount of energy. We define a methodology for risk analysis considering failure processes and repair actions, and based on the definition of component and subsystem hierarchy, interdependencies, failure and repair parameters. Hierarchy higher levels are modelled by Fault Trees, while lower levels are modelled by a dependency graph. Component Health Status (CHS \(^{\copyright }\) ) is a wear index evaluated by experts, from which failure and repair distributions are derived through a fitting procedure. Producibility levels and risk matrix are the output of our methodology, which is applied, as a case study, to a simplified hydropower plant.