A high-dimensional Bayesian skew-Gaussian spatial model for analyzing rainfall trends
摘要
Analyzing the effect of climate change on rainfall is crucial from the perspective of agriculture, water resources management, and disaster management. Motivated by the key features present in a gridded rainfall dataset published by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the years 1951–2022 at a spatial resolution of 0.25◦×0.25◦ across India, we propose a high-dimensional Bayesian skew-Gaussian conditional autoregressive model to analyze spatially-varying temporal patterns in Indian monsoon rainfall.We model the mean component in a semiparametric regression framework with spatially-varying coefficients and assume the skewness component to be also spatially-varying. We briefly discuss some theoretical properties of the proposed model. We draw inferences using Gibbs sampling by exploiting the hierarchical definition of a skew-Gaussian distribution as a random location-mixture of a Gaussian distribution. We study the posterior mean and the corresponding T-statistics of the overall change in rainfall amounts during the observational period at each grid cell. Our results indicate a significant negative trend in various parts of the Gangetic River basin, where agriculture is predominantly dependent on the availability of rainwater.