Crime victimisation, especially in the form of agricultural theft, is a serious problem in rural areas of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), as it may threaten rural people’s livelihoods and food security. Using the cases of Kenya and Tanzania, we investigate the evidence of agricultural theft, including crops and livestock, and analyse the factors determining victimisation. Based on a panel dataset of 793 households in rural Tanzania and 746 households in rural Kenya, we find relatively high victimisation rates in Tanzania (23% in 2018 and 57% in 2021) compared to Kenya (7% in 2018 and 17% in 2021). Both countries are experiencing increasing victimisation trends over time, which appear to be largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The random-effects and pooled logit models reveal that rural households exposed to weather (e.g. droughts, floods, storms), health (e.g. illness of a household member), and partly agricultural (e.g. crop and livestock disease) shocks are positively associated with the likelihood of being affected by crime. We conclude that rural crime victimisation requires attention due to its high incidence and an increasing trend in both countries. Guardianship should be encouraged, especially during times of weather and agricultural shocks.