Work from the 1990’s is described of the role in criminal investigations of statistical modelling in the form of Bayesian belief networks for specific case analysis, also known as offender profiling. The benefits for research and investigations of a collaboration amongst statisticians, computer scientists and detectives are described. The work is illustrated with a Home Office Police Research Group project motivated by a criminal case involving sexually motivated child homicides from the 1980’s.

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Statistical Modelling in Specific Case Analysis with Bayesian Belief Networks

  • Colin G. G. Aitken

摘要

Work from the 1990’s is described of the role in criminal investigations of statistical modelling in the form of Bayesian belief networks for specific case analysis, also known as offender profiling. The benefits for research and investigations of a collaboration amongst statisticians, computer scientists and detectives are described. The work is illustrated with a Home Office Police Research Group project motivated by a criminal case involving sexually motivated child homicides from the 1980’s.