Chance-Constrained Fuzzy Programming-Based Water-Ecology-Energy-Food Nexus Model for the City of Ordos
摘要
In this study, a chance-constrained fuzzy programming (CCFP) method is proposed to synergistically coordinate the water-ecology-energy-food (WEEF) nexus management. CCFP can address both probabilistic randomness and ambiguous fuzziness within the decision-making framework. Then a CCFP-WEEF model is formulated for Ordos. The main research results are: (ⅰ) groundwater remains the main water source in Ordos (accounting for an average of 43.7%) and the share of reclaimed water would rise significantly during 2046–2050; (ⅱ) the water allocation of agriculture would be the largest among different users (reaching 4.8 × 10⁹ m3) and the water allocation of the ecology and energy would increase significantly during 2046–2050; (ⅲ) the water resource allocation in each county would generally increase and the water allocation in Dongsheng would be the largest (reaching an average of 578.2 × 10⁶ m3 per year); (ⅳ) systematic uncertaintiesUncertainties significantly influence water allocation schemes, policymakers should incorporate the impacts of uncertaintiesUncertainties into the WEEF nexus management, and formulate appropriate management strategies according to different risk tolerance levels.