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The increasing demand for air transportation often exceeds infrastructure capacity, which reduces resilience to disruptions and increases delays. Although the average delay per flight in 2024 was low, cumulative delays caused missed flights and cancellations, making schedule adherence crucial. Our article addresses the issue of schedule deviation in European air travel, focusing on the factors influencing schedule deviations. We analyze historical flight data from four European airports to identify key schedule adherence characteristics. Statistical analysis and hypothesis testing reveal that season, day, departure and arrival time significantly affect schedule deviation, while no significant correlation was found with airport traffic. The results indicate that deviations are more pronounced during summer and on Mondays.

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The Challenge of Punctuality: A Statistical Approach to Air Traffic Delays

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Patrik Hegyi,
  • Grzegorz Sierpiński,
  • Bálint Csonka

摘要

The increasing demand for air transportation often exceeds infrastructure capacity, which reduces resilience to disruptions and increases delays. Although the average delay per flight in 2024 was low, cumulative delays caused missed flights and cancellations, making schedule adherence crucial. Our article addresses the issue of schedule deviation in European air travel, focusing on the factors influencing schedule deviations. We analyze historical flight data from four European airports to identify key schedule adherence characteristics. Statistical analysis and hypothesis testing reveal that season, day, departure and arrival time significantly affect schedule deviation, while no significant correlation was found with airport traffic. The results indicate that deviations are more pronounced during summer and on Mondays.