Imagining Energy Futures: Disrupt, Downsize, Scaleup, or Conserve?
摘要
Our chapter explores how technological innovation and socio-behavioral change interact in shaping the future of energy systems in the quest for carbon neutrality. We present a strategic analysis of four divergent scenarios—Disrupt, Downsize, Scaleup, and Conserve. Drawing on data from a Swedish research project that includes case studies, a Delphi study, and scenario analysis, we highlight the importance of imagining desirable futures, policy frameworks, and adaptive strategies, and offer a comprehensive framework for understanding potential pathways toward achieving the Paris Agreement targets. By examining each scenario’s implications for stakeholders such as utilities, investors, consumers, and policymakers, our chapter highlights different approaches to decarbonization. The implications can guide stakeholders to better anticipate future developments, identify risks and opportunities, and make informed decisions that contribute to a resilient and equitable energy future.