Logistics performance is central to competitiveness in small, open economies; yet, prior research rarely identifies a directional, time-ordered mechanism linking firm growth, productivity, and return on investment (ROI). Using a firm-level panel from Estonia’s logistics sector (2006–2020), this study combines causal discovery (VAR–LiNGAM) to recover the ordering among growth, productivity, and ROI with structural equation modelling to estimate path strengths and test moderation by capabilities, resilience, and financing conditions. The results support a clear hierarchy—growth → productivity → ROI—with ROI materialising with delay rather than contemporaneously. The study contributes to the identification and timing of operations–finance research, offering managerial guidance to pair disciplined growth with capability investment and working capital stabilisation.