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One of the major consequences of climate change is an increase in the frequency of occurrence and intensity of hydrometeorological disasters such as Droughts. The area of origin of Banas River basin is one of the areas threatened by drought as the consequence of climate change. Therefore, it is essential to identify and implement appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures. This study uses the three general circulation models (GCMs) data, namely, GFDL-CM3 developed by NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA with atmospheric resolution 2.5° × 2.0°, BNU-ESM developed by Beijing Normal University, China with atmospheric resolution 2.8° × 2.8° and IPSL-CM5A-MR developed by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace, France with atmospheric resolution 2.5° × 1.25°. The future precipitation data (2020–2100) Of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) models, which is used in this study is already downscaled and bias corrected to atmospheric resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°. The potential for Drought events in the vicinity of origin of Banas River in the Banas River basin based on the two Representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 has been calculated. These are used to calculate the length of maximum Drought days (LMDD) for Mild, Moderate and severe Droughts for different rainfall threshold values. The projections show the decrease in LMDD in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario as compared to historical precipitation (1990–2019). The projections also show that under RCP8.5 scenario, the LMDD will decrease as compared to RCP 4.5 Scenario. Under RCP8.5 IPSL-CM5A-MR shows 13.9%, 51.3% and 55.7% less LMDD for Mild, Moderate and severe Droughts respectively while under RCP4.5 Scenario IPSL-CM5A-MR shows 7.4%, 43.2% and 54.7% less LMDD for Mild, Moderate and severe Droughts respectively. Under RCP8.5, BNU-ESM shows 7.4%, 42.5% and 44.6% less LMDD for Mild, Moderate and severe Droughts respectively while under RCP4.5 Scenario BNU-ESM shows 6.4%, 41.4 and 27.2% less LMDD for Mild, Moderate and severe Droughts respectively. Under RCP8.5, GFDL-CM3 shows 5.7%, 24.7% and 36.9% less LMDD for Mild, Moderate and severe Droughts respectively while under RCP4.5 Scenario GFDL-CM3 shows 4.3%, 18.6% and 25.9% less LMDD for Mild, Moderate and severe Droughts respectively. These outcomes can assist decision-makers in understanding the potential future impact of climate change on droughts at Banas River origin vicinity in Banas River basin.

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Drought Projection Assessment Based on CMIP5 Climate Models in Banas River Basin

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Vineet Kumar Sharma,
  • Archana Sarkar,
  • Rohit Goyal

摘要

One of the major consequences of climate change is an increase in the frequency of occurrence and intensity of hydrometeorological disasters such as Droughts. The area of origin of Banas River basin is one of the areas threatened by drought as the consequence of climate change. Therefore, it is essential to identify and implement appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures. This study uses the three general circulation models (GCMs) data, namely, GFDL-CM3 developed by NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA with atmospheric resolution 2.5° × 2.0°, BNU-ESM developed by Beijing Normal University, China with atmospheric resolution 2.8° × 2.8° and IPSL-CM5A-MR developed by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace, France with atmospheric resolution 2.5° × 1.25°. The future precipitation data (2020–2100) Of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5) models, which is used in this study is already downscaled and bias corrected to atmospheric resolution of 0.5° × 0.5°. The potential for Drought events in the vicinity of origin of Banas River in the Banas River basin based on the two Representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 has been calculated. These are used to calculate the length of maximum Drought days (LMDD) for Mild, Moderate and severe Droughts for different rainfall threshold values. The projections show the decrease in LMDD in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario as compared to historical precipitation (1990–2019). The projections also show that under RCP8.5 scenario, the LMDD will decrease as compared to RCP 4.5 Scenario. Under RCP8.5 IPSL-CM5A-MR shows 13.9%, 51.3% and 55.7% less LMDD for Mild, Moderate and severe Droughts respectively while under RCP4.5 Scenario IPSL-CM5A-MR shows 7.4%, 43.2% and 54.7% less LMDD for Mild, Moderate and severe Droughts respectively. Under RCP8.5, BNU-ESM shows 7.4%, 42.5% and 44.6% less LMDD for Mild, Moderate and severe Droughts respectively while under RCP4.5 Scenario BNU-ESM shows 6.4%, 41.4 and 27.2% less LMDD for Mild, Moderate and severe Droughts respectively. Under RCP8.5, GFDL-CM3 shows 5.7%, 24.7% and 36.9% less LMDD for Mild, Moderate and severe Droughts respectively while under RCP4.5 Scenario GFDL-CM3 shows 4.3%, 18.6% and 25.9% less LMDD for Mild, Moderate and severe Droughts respectively. These outcomes can assist decision-makers in understanding the potential future impact of climate change on droughts at Banas River origin vicinity in Banas River basin.