Linking Climate Extremes and Vegetation Dynamics: A Study of Compound Events in Bhopal District, Central India
摘要
This study examines how climate extremes affect vegetation health in Bhopal district, central India, with a focus on compound dry–hot events (CDHEs). CDHEs occur when drought and heat happen at the same time, creating stronger stress on ecosystems and agriculture than either extreme alone. To analyze these events, we used standardized indices for precipitation (SPI), temperature (STI), and vegetation greenness measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Data from 2000 to 2024 were taken from ERA5 climate reanalysis and MODIS satellite observations. The results show that drought years such as 2002, 2009, 2015, and 2019 were often accompanied by extreme heat, leading to sharp declines in NDVI and visible vegetation stress. While rainfall deficits alone reduced vegetation greenness in some years, the combination of low rainfall and high temperatures consistently produced the strongest impacts. In particular, 2002 and 2009 stand out as severe compound events, while 2015–2016 highlight how consecutive dry–hot years can reduce ecosystem resilience. Conversely, wetter years such as 2011 and 2013 supported strong vegetation recovery, reflecting the role of rainfall in buffering ecosystems. The findings highlight that vegetation health in Bhopal is shaped not only by rainfall shortages but also by the interaction between temperature and precipitation. As regional warming continues, heat extremes are expected to play an even larger role in driving vegetation stress. The study underlines the need for integrated adaptation strategies, including improved irrigation, heat-tolerant crops, and wetland conservation, to build resilience against compound climate extremes.