Analyzing a renewable energy project requires quantitative criteria such as metrics adapted to each party (e.g., IRR, NPV, and Payback Time for the investors and DSCR, LLCR, PLCR, and Debt to Equity for the lenders). However, given the risk component inherent to utility-scale renewable energy projects, the evaluation must go beyond these figures, even though the minimum values, in theory, already factor the risk, and therefore include a stack of risk premiums. A qualitative evaluation, with a battery of questions that must be answered before being confronted with the risk appetite of each stakeholder is, therefore, paramount for a successful project financial structuring. For instance, one would ask about the level of confidence of the sponsor in doing business in the host country, or the reputation of the contractors and their experience and presence in the country, and how ready and proven the proposed technology is. Furthermore, a qualitative evaluation could include, if not treated at other stages, sensitivity analysis, and scenario building. This allows an understanding of the extent to which some parameters of the assumptions (expected power generation, possible offtake price, lowest EPC price) could be stretched before reaching red zones. But it also helps anticipate stress scenarios and possible ways out.

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Qualitative Assessment of Renewable Energy Projects

  • Farid Mohamadi

摘要

Analyzing a renewable energy project requires quantitative criteria such as metrics adapted to each party (e.g., IRR, NPV, and Payback Time for the investors and DSCR, LLCR, PLCR, and Debt to Equity for the lenders). However, given the risk component inherent to utility-scale renewable energy projects, the evaluation must go beyond these figures, even though the minimum values, in theory, already factor the risk, and therefore include a stack of risk premiums. A qualitative evaluation, with a battery of questions that must be answered before being confronted with the risk appetite of each stakeholder is, therefore, paramount for a successful project financial structuring. For instance, one would ask about the level of confidence of the sponsor in doing business in the host country, or the reputation of the contractors and their experience and presence in the country, and how ready and proven the proposed technology is. Furthermore, a qualitative evaluation could include, if not treated at other stages, sensitivity analysis, and scenario building. This allows an understanding of the extent to which some parameters of the assumptions (expected power generation, possible offtake price, lowest EPC price) could be stretched before reaching red zones. But it also helps anticipate stress scenarios and possible ways out.