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As technological progress accelerates, mapping diffusion patterns and quantifying a technology’s lifespan have become critical. This study introduces an empirical method that pairs cumulative registered-patent data with a logistic diffusion model to pinpoint both peak diffusion and eventual saturation. Applying the model to 13,269 quantum-technology patents reveals a rapid-spread phase lasting about 22.65 years, peaking in 2025, and a projected saturation around 2077, after which growth may stall. By relying on patent registrations, the method avoids subjective bias and provides a transparent, data-driven forecast. These results give R&D policymakers concrete timelines for phase-specific funding and long-range prioritization of core quantum technologies.

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A Study on Estimating Technology Lifespan Within Quantum Science and Engineering

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Giho Ryu,
  • Taehoon Kim,
  • Sangkyu Jeon

摘要

As technological progress accelerates, mapping diffusion patterns and quantifying a technology’s lifespan have become critical. This study introduces an empirical method that pairs cumulative registered-patent data with a logistic diffusion model to pinpoint both peak diffusion and eventual saturation. Applying the model to 13,269 quantum-technology patents reveals a rapid-spread phase lasting about 22.65 years, peaking in 2025, and a projected saturation around 2077, after which growth may stall. By relying on patent registrations, the method avoids subjective bias and provides a transparent, data-driven forecast. These results give R&D policymakers concrete timelines for phase-specific funding and long-range prioritization of core quantum technologies.