Way Forward
摘要
This chapter outlines future directions for seismic hazard assessment globally and nationally. At the global level, it emphasizes the shift toward physics-based rupture simulations, high-resolution models, and integration of big-data analytics and machine learning into PSHA frameworks to better capture complex fault interactions and reduce epistemic uncertainty. It highlights the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration among seismologists, geologists, engineers and data scientists, and the role of initiatives such as GEM and EFEHR in providing community models, shared infrastructure and benchmarking. Enhanced real-time monitoring, early warning systems, and effective communication of hazard results to policymakers and the public are identified as key elements for operationalizing risk reduction. At the national level, the chapter presents ongoing efforts at IZIIS to revise the SZM2020 and the national annex to Eurocode 8 in line with the second-generation EC8, shifting from PGA-anchored spectra to Sα and Sβ spectral ordinates and incorporating improved seismotectonic models and GMMs. It also underlines North Macedonia’s active participation in EFEHR and the National Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction as a basis for strengthening resilience and integrating advanced hazard science into policy and planning.