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Pot lifePot life is a key element of both productivity and strategic planning at all aluminum smeltersAluminum smelter. Capital and operational expenditures depend heavily on the cathode longevity. Since pot relining makes up over 50% of the CAPEX, it requires strategic planning and oversight. Both the annual capacity and the associated expenses limit the cell relining process, and deciding which cell to take out includes uncertainty and may lead to wasted cathode life. Cell failure can occur through cathode problems, short-term temperature drift, and sidewall premature erosion. Although some companies have developed cell replacement strategies based on the former failure mode, the unpredictability of the latter mechanism could cause many smeltersSmelter to make the wrong cell choices, taking into consideration the number of concurrent occurrences. This paper investigates using a supervised learning algorithm—Flexible Discriminant AnalysisFlexible discriminant analysis (FDA) to improve decision-making when estimating risk of sidelining failure.

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Leveraging the Power of Flexible Discriminant Analysis to Minimize Decision-Making Uncertainty When Predicting Sidewall Failure

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Joseph Ndjebayi,
  • Philippe Theberge,
  • Samuel Theberge

摘要

Pot lifePot life is a key element of both productivity and strategic planning at all aluminum smeltersAluminum smelter. Capital and operational expenditures depend heavily on the cathode longevity. Since pot relining makes up over 50% of the CAPEX, it requires strategic planning and oversight. Both the annual capacity and the associated expenses limit the cell relining process, and deciding which cell to take out includes uncertainty and may lead to wasted cathode life. Cell failure can occur through cathode problems, short-term temperature drift, and sidewall premature erosion. Although some companies have developed cell replacement strategies based on the former failure mode, the unpredictability of the latter mechanism could cause many smeltersSmelter to make the wrong cell choices, taking into consideration the number of concurrent occurrences. This paper investigates using a supervised learning algorithm—Flexible Discriminant AnalysisFlexible discriminant analysis (FDA) to improve decision-making when estimating risk of sidelining failure.