Traditional evaluation metrics provides numerical values but often lack comprehensibility, hindering effective differentiation of model performances. Our work addresses this challenge by introducing \(overlay\_dx\) , a novel evaluation metric measuring the performance of time series prediction models. \(Overlay\_dx\) is a visual metric that represents the percentage of predictions falling within a confidence interval around actual values. Additionally, once evaluation results are plotted, \(overlay\_dx\) computes the area under the overlay curve, providing a quantitative measure of alignment between predicted and actual values across different thresholds and predictions. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our approach offers a unified evaluation framework that combines both visual and numerical assessments, enabling improved model comparison and providing valuable insights for further research and optimization efforts in time series prediction.

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Overlay_dx - Automating Forecasting Evaluation

  • Long H. Ngo,
  • Mohammed Amine Chamli,
  • Jonathan Rivalan,
  • Thomas Jaillon

摘要

Traditional evaluation metrics provides numerical values but often lack comprehensibility, hindering effective differentiation of model performances. Our work addresses this challenge by introducing \(overlay\_dx\) , a novel evaluation metric measuring the performance of time series prediction models. \(Overlay\_dx\) is a visual metric that represents the percentage of predictions falling within a confidence interval around actual values. Additionally, once evaluation results are plotted, \(overlay\_dx\) computes the area under the overlay curve, providing a quantitative measure of alignment between predicted and actual values across different thresholds and predictions. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our approach offers a unified evaluation framework that combines both visual and numerical assessments, enabling improved model comparison and providing valuable insights for further research and optimization efforts in time series prediction.