Coastal urban areas along the Adriatic are at high seismic risk resulting from a dangerous combination of earthquakes occurrence, high population density, and the intense presence of historical buildings. In addition, due to climate change impact, this area is exposed to coastal flooding caused by increasing sea levels with mutual impact of storm surges and the sea-surface waves, resulting in a significant degradation and danger of the urban settlements. This paper proposes a multi-hazard risk framework for combined assessment of naturally unrelated seismic and flood risks. The methodology is demonstrated for the case study of Kaštela town in Croatia. Seismic risk has been evaluated based on seismic hazard for three return periods and the potential damage resulting from these seismic events estimated using the seismic vulnerability curves. The coastal flooding risk assessment is based on assessing extreme sea levels for the selected three return periods and evaluating potential damage to buildings based on a flood depth-damage relationship. Finally, multi-hazard risk is evaluated for each building using the concept of Expected Annual Damage for risk modelling, combining the probability of hazard occurrence and corresponding damage for every risk. The proposed approach allows us to estimate the economic costs of seismic and flood risks.

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An Integrated Approach to Seismic and Coastal Flood Risk Assessment for Historical Buildings

  • Željana Nikolić,
  • Toni Kekez,
  • Elena Benvenuti

摘要

Coastal urban areas along the Adriatic are at high seismic risk resulting from a dangerous combination of earthquakes occurrence, high population density, and the intense presence of historical buildings. In addition, due to climate change impact, this area is exposed to coastal flooding caused by increasing sea levels with mutual impact of storm surges and the sea-surface waves, resulting in a significant degradation and danger of the urban settlements. This paper proposes a multi-hazard risk framework for combined assessment of naturally unrelated seismic and flood risks. The methodology is demonstrated for the case study of Kaštela town in Croatia. Seismic risk has been evaluated based on seismic hazard for three return periods and the potential damage resulting from these seismic events estimated using the seismic vulnerability curves. The coastal flooding risk assessment is based on assessing extreme sea levels for the selected three return periods and evaluating potential damage to buildings based on a flood depth-damage relationship. Finally, multi-hazard risk is evaluated for each building using the concept of Expected Annual Damage for risk modelling, combining the probability of hazard occurrence and corresponding damage for every risk. The proposed approach allows us to estimate the economic costs of seismic and flood risks.