Enlargement in the Western Balkans has travelled a long road: from post-conflict stabilisation to a technocratic ‘waiting room’, and now to a security-framed ‘geostrategic investment’ after Russia’s war against Ukraine. The conclusion synthesises how subtle, often hidden modes of contestation have become embedded in accession processes across non-consolidated democracies. Mapping actors, substance, and modes of contestation reveals how domestic resistance, ambivalence, and double standards generate openings for Russia, China, Türkiye, and others. Using indicators of securitisation, geopolitical discourse, and intra-EU bargaining, the analysis reconstructs distinct phases in the EU’s approach and presents the Western Balkans as a laboratory for the Union’s emerging geopolitical actorness. The unresolved tension between normative conditionality and strategic urgency emerges as the fault line that will shape the future of enlargement.

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Enlargement in Times of Geopolitical Contestation

  • Klodiana Beshku

摘要

Enlargement in the Western Balkans has travelled a long road: from post-conflict stabilisation to a technocratic ‘waiting room’, and now to a security-framed ‘geostrategic investment’ after Russia’s war against Ukraine. The conclusion synthesises how subtle, often hidden modes of contestation have become embedded in accession processes across non-consolidated democracies. Mapping actors, substance, and modes of contestation reveals how domestic resistance, ambivalence, and double standards generate openings for Russia, China, Türkiye, and others. Using indicators of securitisation, geopolitical discourse, and intra-EU bargaining, the analysis reconstructs distinct phases in the EU’s approach and presents the Western Balkans as a laboratory for the Union’s emerging geopolitical actorness. The unresolved tension between normative conditionality and strategic urgency emerges as the fault line that will shape the future of enlargement.