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Motor gasoline consumption has made a significant contribution to global energy usage, impacting both economic and environmental outcomes. This study analyzes global motor gasoline consumption trends across 190 countries from 1990 to 2022 using data from UNdata. The forecasting accuracy of four models ARIMA, SARIMA, ETS, and Linear Regression is also evaluated using performance metrics. Among them, Linear Regression demonstrates the highest accuracy with MAPE (3.21%), NRMSE (4.11) and R \(^{2}\) (0.28), indicating a steady increase in consumption. The model forecasts that world gasoline consumption will reach approximately 7,076,685.69 (Metric tons, thousand) in the next 15 years (2023–2037), reflecting a 20.58% increase from 2022. Higher gasoline consumption leads to an increase in C02 emissions, posing environmental and health risks. These findings emphasize the urgent need for sustainable energy policies and the adoption of alternative fuels to mitigate the adverse impacts.

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Global Gasoline Consumption Trend: Forecasting Future Demand and Discussing Environmental Implications

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Md Fahim Hossain,
  • Maitreyee Dey,
  • Soumya Prakash Rana

摘要

Motor gasoline consumption has made a significant contribution to global energy usage, impacting both economic and environmental outcomes. This study analyzes global motor gasoline consumption trends across 190 countries from 1990 to 2022 using data from UNdata. The forecasting accuracy of four models ARIMA, SARIMA, ETS, and Linear Regression is also evaluated using performance metrics. Among them, Linear Regression demonstrates the highest accuracy with MAPE (3.21%), NRMSE (4.11) and R \(^{2}\) (0.28), indicating a steady increase in consumption. The model forecasts that world gasoline consumption will reach approximately 7,076,685.69 (Metric tons, thousand) in the next 15 years (2023–2037), reflecting a 20.58% increase from 2022. Higher gasoline consumption leads to an increase in C02 emissions, posing environmental and health risks. These findings emphasize the urgent need for sustainable energy policies and the adoption of alternative fuels to mitigate the adverse impacts.