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This study examines the impact of climate change on photovoltaic (PV) potential across South Africa, focusing on the period from 2015 to 2100 using CMIP6 and SSP245 climate projections. South Africa’s diverse climates, from the hot deserts to humid subtropical regions, present unique challenges and opportunities for solar energy generation. By analysing historical weather data from NASA’s MERRA2 dataset (1980–2023), this research identifies trends in key variables such as Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), air temperature, and cloud cover, influencing PV generation. These trends are then used to assess the reliability of the SSP245 model predictions. The analysis reveals a general decline in PV potential in the western regions of South Africa, including key solar hubs like Upington, while eastern regions show growth potential. By 2100, PV potential in Upington is projected to decrease by 2.20%, while other regions may see increases of up to 4.00%. These findings underscore the need for strategic planning in South Africa’s solar energy sector to mitigate the impacts of climate change on future PV performance.

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Analysing the Effect of Climate Change on Photovoltaic Solar Plants in South Africa

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Tiaan Snyman,
  • Arnold Rix

摘要

This study examines the impact of climate change on photovoltaic (PV) potential across South Africa, focusing on the period from 2015 to 2100 using CMIP6 and SSP245 climate projections. South Africa’s diverse climates, from the hot deserts to humid subtropical regions, present unique challenges and opportunities for solar energy generation. By analysing historical weather data from NASA’s MERRA2 dataset (1980–2023), this research identifies trends in key variables such as Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), air temperature, and cloud cover, influencing PV generation. These trends are then used to assess the reliability of the SSP245 model predictions. The analysis reveals a general decline in PV potential in the western regions of South Africa, including key solar hubs like Upington, while eastern regions show growth potential. By 2100, PV potential in Upington is projected to decrease by 2.20%, while other regions may see increases of up to 4.00%. These findings underscore the need for strategic planning in South Africa’s solar energy sector to mitigate the impacts of climate change on future PV performance.