Scholarlink

Floods are the most devastating hydro-meteorological hazard in the world, causing human life losses and creating damage to infrastructure, i.e. buildings, roads, railway lines, bridges, etc. In Pakistan, floods are one of the most devastating and recurring natural hazards. River Chenab is the main western river of the Indus River System in Pakistan which undergoes intensive flooding almost every year. Flood frequency analysis is the most common technique used for the at-site estimation of flood recurrence interval. Gumbel and Log-Pearson type 3 probability distributions were employed for simulating the future flood discharge scenarios using annual peak flow data (1971–2020) from four gauging stations Marala, Khanki, Qadirabad and Trimmu headworks of the River Chenab. The result shows an increasing trend in discharge which reveals that the capacity of headworks should increase for better flood management in the future. The probable discharge values for Marala headworks are 515,043, 809,389, 931,276, 1,052,264, and 1,172,810 cusecs for 5, 25, 50, 100-and 200-years flood, respectively. D-Index test is used as a goodness-of-fit test for the selection of a suitable distribution for the estimation of maximum flood discharge. However, as revealed by the goodness-of-fit test (D-index Test), the Gumbel distribution was found to be the better-fitted probability distribution for the Chenab basin.

错误：搜索内容不能为空，请输入英文关键词
错误：关键词超出字数限制，请精简
高级检索

Analysis and Forecasting of Flood Hazard in Lower Chenab Basin, Upper Indus Plain Using Hydro-Probabilistic Approach

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

查看全文
  • Ayeza Shaukat,
  • Shakeel Mahmood,
  • Saifullah,
  • Saddam Hussain

摘要

Floods are the most devastating hydro-meteorological hazard in the world, causing human life losses and creating damage to infrastructure, i.e. buildings, roads, railway lines, bridges, etc. In Pakistan, floods are one of the most devastating and recurring natural hazards. River Chenab is the main western river of the Indus River System in Pakistan which undergoes intensive flooding almost every year. Flood frequency analysis is the most common technique used for the at-site estimation of flood recurrence interval. Gumbel and Log-Pearson type 3 probability distributions were employed for simulating the future flood discharge scenarios using annual peak flow data (1971–2020) from four gauging stations Marala, Khanki, Qadirabad and Trimmu headworks of the River Chenab. The result shows an increasing trend in discharge which reveals that the capacity of headworks should increase for better flood management in the future. The probable discharge values for Marala headworks are 515,043, 809,389, 931,276, 1,052,264, and 1,172,810 cusecs for 5, 25, 50, 100-and 200-years flood, respectively. D-Index test is used as a goodness-of-fit test for the selection of a suitable distribution for the estimation of maximum flood discharge. However, as revealed by the goodness-of-fit test (D-index Test), the Gumbel distribution was found to be the better-fitted probability distribution for the Chenab basin.