This study investigates the relationship between disability, student identity, and educational expectations among students with disability in Australia. Using survey data from over 15,000 Year 10 Australian students, we employed multilevel regression analysis to assess both the influence of disability and the role of support programs in shaping students’ future educational plans. Findings indicate a negative correlation between disability, student identity-relevant behaviours, sense of belonging, and future educational expectations. However, nuanced results emerged regarding the impact of support programs on student identity and aspirations for higher education. Implications for disability policies focused on educational inclusion are discussed, emphasizing the influence of support programs on students’ identity and behaviour.