This study empirically examines the nonlinear influence of digital financial inclusion on air pollution and its mechanism of action in the context of the “dual-carbon” objective using a two-way fixed-effects model using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces and cities between 2014 and 2023. The results show that the impact of digital financial inclusion on air pollution is significantly inverted U-shaped, i.e., it increases pollution before reducing it. Only once the expansion of digital financial inclusion hits a specific threshold will the emission reduction impact be possible. In the eastern area, where the most prominent inverted U-type has crossed the inflection point, emission reduction is reinforced by industrial structure optimization. In the western region, the effect is substantial but on the left side, and foreign direct investment exacerbates pollution. In the middle region, the influence is imperceptible and depends on financial intervention. Promoting the green industrial cluster paradigm, converting digital funding into green empowerment, differentiating regional development, and creating a suitable assessment mechanism are all advised.

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Decoding the Inverted U-Shaped Nexus: Digital Financial Inclusion and Air Pollution in China’s Carbon–Neutral Transition

  • Fu Xian,
  • Binfeng Liu

摘要

This study empirically examines the nonlinear influence of digital financial inclusion on air pollution and its mechanism of action in the context of the “dual-carbon” objective using a two-way fixed-effects model using panel data from 31 Chinese provinces and cities between 2014 and 2023. The results show that the impact of digital financial inclusion on air pollution is significantly inverted U-shaped, i.e., it increases pollution before reducing it. Only once the expansion of digital financial inclusion hits a specific threshold will the emission reduction impact be possible. In the eastern area, where the most prominent inverted U-type has crossed the inflection point, emission reduction is reinforced by industrial structure optimization. In the western region, the effect is substantial but on the left side, and foreign direct investment exacerbates pollution. In the middle region, the influence is imperceptible and depends on financial intervention. Promoting the green industrial cluster paradigm, converting digital funding into green empowerment, differentiating regional development, and creating a suitable assessment mechanism are all advised.