This chapter explores the Consistency of Evidence with Causal Relationships as an additional framework for causal inference in impact assessments, especially when traditional counterfactual methods face ethical or practical challenges. It stresses aligning diverse sources—quantitative, qualitative, longitudinal, and contextual—to develop credible causal narratives. The chapter traces its origins from Mohr’s critique to modern triangulation, compares it with other approaches, such as counterfactual analysis, and explains principles like triangulation and coherence. It classifies methods into theory-based, explanatory, and confirmatory models. A case study on grade inflation at a Latin American university demonstrates its use through evidence convergence from multiple sources. The discussion concludes that this approach complements other strategies, enabling evaluators to understand not just if change happened, but how, why, and under what conditions.

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Consistency of Evidence with Causal Relationships Approach

  • Luis Portales Derbez

摘要

This chapter explores the Consistency of Evidence with Causal Relationships as an additional framework for causal inference in impact assessments, especially when traditional counterfactual methods face ethical or practical challenges. It stresses aligning diverse sources—quantitative, qualitative, longitudinal, and contextual—to develop credible causal narratives. The chapter traces its origins from Mohr’s critique to modern triangulation, compares it with other approaches, such as counterfactual analysis, and explains principles like triangulation and coherence. It classifies methods into theory-based, explanatory, and confirmatory models. A case study on grade inflation at a Latin American university demonstrates its use through evidence convergence from multiple sources. The discussion concludes that this approach complements other strategies, enabling evaluators to understand not just if change happened, but how, why, and under what conditions.