Lessons from History: The Societal Impacts of Technological Change
摘要
Technological change has repeatedly reshaped labour markets and social structures. What can we learn from previous episodes? This chapter explores labour displacement during the First and Second Industrial Revolutions, and makes three arguments. Firstly, labour displacement during previous industrial revolutions was of an order of magnitude greater than anything in recent decades. If the Fourth Industrial Revolution heralds disruption on a similar scale, we should look to the historical record to inform our expectations. Previous experience suggest that current debates on the future of work underweight three factors: the likely scale of the shock, the speed of adoption, and the changing geography of employment opportunities. Secondly, deep shifts in labour demand are inherently political. The Industrial Revolutions in Britain triggered machine-breaking, direct action, and political movements, from the Chartists to the rise of the Labour Party. These led to major legal reforms, including the Factory Acts and the introduction of minimum wage laws. We should expect similar upheavals in politics today. Thirdly, a long-run view underscores that we live in the house that skills-biased technological change built. For the last century, new technologies have been skill-biased. This has shaped the development of the education system, opened doors to social mobility, driven the demographic transition, and likely restructured the logic of taxation and redistribution. Institutions forged by previous industrial revolutions have formed the bedrock of the social contract in Western democracies for more than 100 years. If generative AI is de-skilling, it may dismantle some of the institutions which have defined the last century.