Previous research has prominently discussed whether military victories or political compromises lead to stable peace. This chapter argues that both approaches prevent civil war recurrence if they result in a convergence of the distribution of military power and the distribution of political benefits. In contrast, if relative military power diverges from the distribution of political benefits, peace is less stable. To test this assumption, the author conducts a quantitative survival analysis, uses Qualitative Comparative Analysis, and briefly discusses five cases in which the scale of political compromise diverged from relative military power. A divergence between the scale of political compromise and the distribution of military power partly explains peace survival and civil war recurrence. However, the findings do not solve the controversy of “stable peace through military victory” vs. “stable peace through compromise.”

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Divergence Between Relative Military Power and the Scale of Political Compromise as a Path to Civil War Recurrence

  • Thorsten Gromes

摘要

Previous research has prominently discussed whether military victories or political compromises lead to stable peace. This chapter argues that both approaches prevent civil war recurrence if they result in a convergence of the distribution of military power and the distribution of political benefits. In contrast, if relative military power diverges from the distribution of political benefits, peace is less stable. To test this assumption, the author conducts a quantitative survival analysis, uses Qualitative Comparative Analysis, and briefly discusses five cases in which the scale of political compromise diverged from relative military power. A divergence between the scale of political compromise and the distribution of military power partly explains peace survival and civil war recurrence. However, the findings do not solve the controversy of “stable peace through military victory” vs. “stable peace through compromise.”