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This study was undertaken to improve the reliability of climate information by projecting climate change and variability in the Ganale Dawa River Basin using the observational data of the fifteen stations and CMIP6’s GCM data from 2015 to 2074 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Bias correction and statistical downscaling were performed using SD-GCM 2 software. The findings showed that maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to increase by 0.15–0.51 °C, 0.06–0.77 °C, and 0.0–0.32 °C under SSP2-4.5 near-term and mid-term scenarios, respectively. Similarly, the maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to increase by 0.23–0.75 °C and 0.44–1.19 °C, and 0.44–1.36 °C and 0.77–1.48 °C under the near- and mid-term SSP5-8.5, respectively. Similarly, rainfall under the near-term SSP 2-4.5 is projected to decrease by 0.4% to 4.3%. The midterm SSP-2-4.5 showed an increase of 3.4% to 15.5%. The near-term SSP-5.5 scenario projects a 1.0% to 7.3% increase in annual rainfall, and the mid-term SSP-5.5 scenario projects an increase of 7.3%–23.0%. Seasonally, the near-term SSP-2-4.5 scenario shows decreases in spring rainfall ranging from 5.7% to 25.9%. The midterm-SSP-2-4.5 scenario has a mix of increases (up to 29.6%) and decreases (down to −23.6%). Overall, the seasonal rainfall projections indicate a trend toward drier springs and wetter autumns, with summer rainfall exhibiting greater variability across different scenarios and regions. The mid-term SSP5-8.5 scenarios generally show the largest positive and negative changes compared to the mid-term SSP2-4.5 scenarios. The coefficient of variation showed less variation in rainfall and temperature projections for the projected period under all scenarios. The increasing temperature and precipitation could lead to a higher likelihood of floods and waterlogging. Meanwhile, extremely low rainfall and excessive temperatures can result in drought hazards in certain places. Therefore, mitigation, adaptation, and disaster risk management strategies are required to address the challenges.

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Investigation of Spatiotemporal Variability and Climate Change Projections Under SSP Scenarios in the Ganale Dawa River Basin, Ethiopia

  • 章节

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Eliyas Abdi Ali,
  • Asfaw Kebede,
  • Mekonen Ayana,
  • Petros Chavula,
  • Abebe Bezu Bedada

摘要

This study was undertaken to improve the reliability of climate information by projecting climate change and variability in the Ganale Dawa River Basin using the observational data of the fifteen stations and CMIP6’s GCM data from 2015 to 2074 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Bias correction and statistical downscaling were performed using SD-GCM 2 software. The findings showed that maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to increase by 0.15–0.51 °C, 0.06–0.77 °C, and 0.0–0.32 °C under SSP2-4.5 near-term and mid-term scenarios, respectively. Similarly, the maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to increase by 0.23–0.75 °C and 0.44–1.19 °C, and 0.44–1.36 °C and 0.77–1.48 °C under the near- and mid-term SSP5-8.5, respectively. Similarly, rainfall under the near-term SSP 2-4.5 is projected to decrease by 0.4% to 4.3%. The midterm SSP-2-4.5 showed an increase of 3.4% to 15.5%. The near-term SSP-5.5 scenario projects a 1.0% to 7.3% increase in annual rainfall, and the mid-term SSP-5.5 scenario projects an increase of 7.3%–23.0%. Seasonally, the near-term SSP-2-4.5 scenario shows decreases in spring rainfall ranging from 5.7% to 25.9%. The midterm-SSP-2-4.5 scenario has a mix of increases (up to 29.6%) and decreases (down to −23.6%). Overall, the seasonal rainfall projections indicate a trend toward drier springs and wetter autumns, with summer rainfall exhibiting greater variability across different scenarios and regions. The mid-term SSP5-8.5 scenarios generally show the largest positive and negative changes compared to the mid-term SSP2-4.5 scenarios. The coefficient of variation showed less variation in rainfall and temperature projections for the projected period under all scenarios. The increasing temperature and precipitation could lead to a higher likelihood of floods and waterlogging. Meanwhile, extremely low rainfall and excessive temperatures can result in drought hazards in certain places. Therefore, mitigation, adaptation, and disaster risk management strategies are required to address the challenges.