Logistics Performance and Foreign Direct Investment in a Developing Economy: The Case of Vietnam
摘要
This study investigates whether superior trade-logistics capability attracts larger flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) to Vietnam. Using six World Bank LPI waves (2007–2023) for Vietnam and its 31 main source economies, we construct a distance-adjusted Bilateral Logistics Performance Index (BLPI). The resulting unbalanced panel reflects both “hard” (physical infrastructure) and “soft” (customs efficiency, regulatory transparency) logistics dimensions. A gravity-type model with partner- and year-fixed effects is estimated in log-linear and Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML-FE) forms, and additional regressions employ lagged explanatory variables to limit reverse-causality bias. Across specifications, gains in hard logistics infrastructure are consistently and strongly associated with markedly higher bilateral FDI, while improvements in soft logistics exert positive but more moderate effects. The advantage of hard infrastructure becomes even clearer in two-year-lag models, suggesting that physical upgrades translate into investment commitments after the typical project gestation period. These findings highlight the outsized payoff Vietnam can expect from prioritizing seaport and transport-network upgrades, while concurrent reforms in border procedures and governance amplify the benefits of physical investment.