Inflation-Adjusted Return Comparison of Sovereign Gold Bonds with Alternative Investment Avenues: A Decadal Analysis (2015–2024)
摘要
Sovereign gold bond (SGBs) is government—backed securities introduced as an alternative to physical gold investments. Issued by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on behalf of the Government of India, these bonds are denominated in grams of gold and linked to the domestic market price of gold with 999 purity. The scheme was launched on November 5, 2015, following its announcement in the Union Budget 2015–16 and subsequent Cabinet approval. This study investigates the real, inflation-adjusted performance of Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGBs) in comparison to Gold Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), Nifty 50 equities, and Fixed Deposits (FDs) over a 10-year period from 2015 to 2024. With the rising preference for paper and digital gold in the Indian financial landscape, the study critically assesses whether SGBs deliver superior inflation-hedged returns and outperform traditional investment instruments. The research is grounded in a quantitative framework, drawing from secondary data sources including the Reserve Bank of India, ET Money, and historical inflation databases. Real returns are derived using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and measured through Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) calculations. The analysis reveals that while SGBs offer a unique combination of capital appreciation and semi-annual interest payouts, their performance is closely matched by Gold ETFs and equities in bullish market conditions. The study is motivated by the rising adoption of SGBs among Indian investors and the need to examine their comparative utility against traditional and modern investment avenues. Employing a quantitative and descriptive research design, the study draws entirely on secondary data sourced from reputable platforms such as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), ET Money, Prime Investor, Investing.com , GoodReturns.in, and InflationTool.com . The real returns for each investment class were calculated by adjusting nominal returns using the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to account for inflationary erosion in purchasing power. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) was employed to measure long-term average returns, ensuring a standardized comparison across diverse asset classes.