Modeling the Used Vehicles Market Share in the Electric Vehicle Transition
摘要
The adoption of a new technology is well described by an S-curve. It starts with a slow initial introduction, a faster growth, and a final low-paced stage that corresponds to saturation. Once the innovation is introduced and progressively adopted, prior to saturation, some of the initial owners will begin selling their initially owned goods for different reasons: lack of satisfaction, upgrading to a newer model, or other special unrevealed reasons. In a given market there will be a coexistence of new and second-hand products that will find new owners. The evolution of the two qualities of the same product will progress to a given equilibrium and final ratio specific to each market. With the hypothesis of the second-hand goods viewed as a new technology for lower budgets in the market, their adoption can be described as well by the S-curve. The questions to be answered will be the dynamics of adoption of the two technologies, the ratio at equilibrium between new and used products in a market, and the delay required before equilibrium is achieved. In this chapter is presented a realistic model to approach and analyze the adoption of the electric vehicle (EV) with the mix of new and used vehicles in new registrations. The EV transition is presented with an adoption represented by the S-curve; it has also presented the ratio of new to used EVs in new registrations in a context of high demand of used EVs and a context of rapid depreciation of EVs corresponding to lower demand of preowned EVs. The model predicts the number of years needed before an equilibrium is reached in the ratio between the proportions of used and new EVs in new registrations for a given market.