The rapid transformation of land use and land cover (LULC) has appeared as a critical environmental concern, resulting in unsustainable developmental practices characterized by the depletion of green spaces and alterations in local climate conditions. Addressing these complex interactions is crucial for effective land management, sustainable urban development planning (SDG 11), and the mitigation of adverse environmental impacts. The study investigates the pattern and dynamics of LULC changes and built-up expansion within Shimla city, spanning two decades from 2010 to 2020 while projecting future land-use alterations up to 2030. LULC map is categorized into six distinct classes, i.e., water bodies, scrubland, dense forest, agriculture, built-up areas, and barren land areas. Satellite-derived LULC maps covering the period from 2010 to 2020 illustrate a net urban growth of 66.96 hectares, accompanied by reductions in forest coverage by 65.91 hectares and barren land by 20.19 hectares. Utilizing the sophisticated MOLUSCE plugin (MLP-ANN) model within a GIS framework, different thematic layers, including digital elevation model (DEM), slope, aspect, proximity to roads, land surface temperature (LST), normalized differential built-up index (NDBI), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were integrated for the modeling purpose. The historical patterns reveal a discernible increase in built-up areas and agricultural expanses, with a significant decline in dense forest cover predicted by 2030. Projections show a further intensification in urbanized areas, foreseeing a prospective increase of 217.7 hectares from 2010 to 2030. The results of this study offer valuable insights for researchers, city planners, and stakeholders about urbanization and sustainable urban development policies.