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This study assesses future climate change in Qatar under three IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Using multi-model simulations made under IPCC’s CMIP6, projected changes in seasonal and annual mean temperature, heat stress index, and rainfall are analyzed for three future periods—the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s—relative to the 1986–2005 baseline. Average temperature increases over Qatar are projected to range from 1.4 to 1.5 °C in the 2030s, 1.8 to 2.6 °C in the 2050s, and 2.0 to 5.3 °C by the 2080s, depending on the emission scenario. The heat stress index is expected to rise by 13.3 °C by the century’s end, shifting conditions from “extreme caution” to “danger” levels during summer. Additionally, under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), annual rainfall could increase by 44% by 2100. These projected changes in temperature, rainfall, and heat stress may have significant ecological and environmental management implications for Qatar and the surrounding region.

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Climate, Climate Modeling, and Forecasting

  • 章节

  • 出版模式：

    开放获取

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • K. K. Kanikicharla,
  • P. K. Bal,
  • N. Al-Mohannadi,
  • A. S. Al-Ansari,
  • A. M. Al-Mannai,
  • A. Amato,
  • A. D. Chatziefthimiou

摘要

This study assesses future climate change in Qatar under three IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. Using multi-model simulations made under IPCC’s CMIP6, projected changes in seasonal and annual mean temperature, heat stress index, and rainfall are analyzed for three future periods—the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s—relative to the 1986–2005 baseline. Average temperature increases over Qatar are projected to range from 1.4 to 1.5 °C in the 2030s, 1.8 to 2.6 °C in the 2050s, and 2.0 to 5.3 °C by the 2080s, depending on the emission scenario. The heat stress index is expected to rise by 13.3 °C by the century’s end, shifting conditions from “extreme caution” to “danger” levels during summer. Additionally, under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), annual rainfall could increase by 44% by 2100. These projected changes in temperature, rainfall, and heat stress may have significant ecological and environmental management implications for Qatar and the surrounding region.