This paper investigates the impact of global monetary shocks on Chinese export prices, with a particular focus on the period before and after China’s exchange rate regime change in July 2005. Using firm-level data, we demonstrate that US monetary tightening significantly influences Chinese export prices, primarily through increased borrowing costs and liquidity constraints. My findings remain robust across different time periods and when controlling for exchange rate fluctuations. In addition, I distinguish between ordinary and processing trade, revealing that processing traders, less dependent on external financing, exhibit smaller price responses. The study also explores the limited spillover effects of European Central Bank monetary shocks on Chinese exports. A partial equilibrium model illustrates how global monetary contractions increase export prices by exacerbating financial frictions. My results suggest that adopting a more flexible exchange rate regime can mitigate the adverse effects of foreign monetary policy shocks on export pricing.

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Exchange Rate Regimes, Financial Constraints, and Export Pricing: Evidence from Chinese Firms

  • Mujahid Merchant

摘要

This paper investigates the impact of global monetary shocks on Chinese export prices, with a particular focus on the period before and after China’s exchange rate regime change in July 2005. Using firm-level data, we demonstrate that US monetary tightening significantly influences Chinese export prices, primarily through increased borrowing costs and liquidity constraints. My findings remain robust across different time periods and when controlling for exchange rate fluctuations. In addition, I distinguish between ordinary and processing trade, revealing that processing traders, less dependent on external financing, exhibit smaller price responses. The study also explores the limited spillover effects of European Central Bank monetary shocks on Chinese exports. A partial equilibrium model illustrates how global monetary contractions increase export prices by exacerbating financial frictions. My results suggest that adopting a more flexible exchange rate regime can mitigate the adverse effects of foreign monetary policy shocks on export pricing.