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Achieving climate neutrality by 2050 is a central objective of the European Union’s environmental strategy, reflecting the urgent need to reduce carbon emissions (CO2) across member states. This study aims to assess the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption, land use and land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF), and the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in driving CO2 emissions within the EU in the period 2000–2022. Utilizing a regression clustering analysis, we segment EU countries into seven clusters, allowing for a nuanced examination of emissions drivers. In particular, GDP generally tends to decrease CO2 emissions in the EU. On the contrary, energy consumption significantly increases CO2 emissions. Renewables have a mitigating effect on CO2 emissions in all clusters and LULUCF significantly reduces CO2 emissions in all clusters except Malta. The coefficients of determination R2 for individual clusters range from 0.808 to 0.987, indicating a high reliability of the models. Despite the positive results, there is a need to accelerate the EU's decarbonization efforts by promoting sustainable land management and wider integration of RES into the energy mix.

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How Do Economic, Energy, and Land Management Dynamics Influence the EU’s Path to Climate Neutrality? Insights from Regression Clustering Analysis

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Jana Chovancová,
  • Róbert Štefko,
  • Igor Petruška,
  • Radoslav Mikča,
  • Emília Huttmanová,
  • Manuel A. Zambrano-Monserrate

摘要

Achieving climate neutrality by 2050 is a central objective of the European Union’s environmental strategy, reflecting the urgent need to reduce carbon emissions (CO2) across member states. This study aims to assess the relationship between economic growth, energy consumption, land use and land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF), and the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in driving CO2 emissions within the EU in the period 2000–2022. Utilizing a regression clustering analysis, we segment EU countries into seven clusters, allowing for a nuanced examination of emissions drivers. In particular, GDP generally tends to decrease CO2 emissions in the EU. On the contrary, energy consumption significantly increases CO2 emissions. Renewables have a mitigating effect on CO2 emissions in all clusters and LULUCF significantly reduces CO2 emissions in all clusters except Malta. The coefficients of determination R2 for individual clusters range from 0.808 to 0.987, indicating a high reliability of the models. Despite the positive results, there is a need to accelerate the EU's decarbonization efforts by promoting sustainable land management and wider integration of RES into the energy mix.