In Portugal, municipal debt is legally regulated, with a set limit to ensure that public administration debt—both at the national and municipal levels—remains within controlled levels. This necessity arises from the fact that public debt can influence macroeconomic stability and the provision of public services, making municipal debt control a constant concern. In this context, debt risk prevention and control are also crucial, and predictive models can play a key role in achieving this goal. Given the growing evidence of the importance of predictive models and the facilitating role of business intelligence tools in developing these models, this study proposes the following research question: “Do predictive models supported by business intelligence have the potential to facilitate the monitoring of local government debt levels?”. The study concludes that business intelligence tools are effective in designing predictive models. It also finds that the use of these models can help decision-makers monitor debt indicators and make proactive decisions to achieve debt control objectives.

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Business Intelligence and Predictive Monitoring of Municipal Debt

  • Carlos Santos,
  • Augusta Ferreira,
  • Helena Inácio

摘要

In Portugal, municipal debt is legally regulated, with a set limit to ensure that public administration debt—both at the national and municipal levels—remains within controlled levels. This necessity arises from the fact that public debt can influence macroeconomic stability and the provision of public services, making municipal debt control a constant concern. In this context, debt risk prevention and control are also crucial, and predictive models can play a key role in achieving this goal. Given the growing evidence of the importance of predictive models and the facilitating role of business intelligence tools in developing these models, this study proposes the following research question: “Do predictive models supported by business intelligence have the potential to facilitate the monitoring of local government debt levels?”. The study concludes that business intelligence tools are effective in designing predictive models. It also finds that the use of these models can help decision-makers monitor debt indicators and make proactive decisions to achieve debt control objectives.