Bitcoin Financial Forecasting: Analyzing the Impact of Moving Average Strategies on Trading Performance
摘要
The effectiveness of moving average strategies in forecasting Bitcoin prices and optimizing trading decisions is essential nowadays. By applying various moving averages, including short-term, medium-term, and long-term moving averages, the study evaluates their performance through a backtesting framework. The results indicate that the moving average strategies outperform the traditional buy-and-hold approach, particularly during volatile market conditions, such as the Bitcoin bull run in 2021. Short-term moving averages are more responsive to price fluctuations but prone to generating false signals, while longer-term averages offer excellent stability but react more slowly. The combined moving average strategy optimally balances responsiveness and stability, making it an effective tool for traders. The study also highlights the importance of parameter selection, transaction costs, and market regimes in determining the strategy’s performance. Future research could focus on integrating machine learning techniques adaptive moving averages and exploring applying this strategy to other cryptocurrencies.