An Integrated Coastal Vulnerability Analysis of Selected Coastal Areas of Kerala Using Bayesian Belief Network and GIS
摘要
Coastal vulnerability encompasses the susceptibility of populations and environments to disruptions caused by coastal hazards, including storms, flooding, and shoreline erosion. These hazards pose considerable risks to human life and property. In recent years, the Malabar Coast of India (especially in Kerala state) is become prone to various coastal hazards and affects millions of people. In this context, an integrated study of the coast of Kozhikode, Ernakulam, and Thiruvananthapuram districts of Kerala is conducted to identify the coastal vulnerable areas. Physical factors such as slope, lithology, geomorphology, and land use/land cover, along with socio-economic indicators including household density, population density, literacy rate, and the proportion of marginalized populations, are taken into account. Thereafter, physical vulnerability, socio-economic vulnerability, and integrated coastal vulnerability is modeled using the Bayesian belief network. The results indicate that a significant portion of coastal areas exhibit high levels of both physical and socio-economic vulnerability. Furthermore, the integrated coastal vulnerability assessment reveals that approximately 14% of Kozhikode, 18% of Ernakulam, and 20% of Thiruvananthapuram districts are classified within very high vulnerability zones. The findings of the present study are useful for long-term sustainable development of Kerala coast.