Theme 5: The Culture of Preparedness—Between Anticipation and Avoidance
摘要
Emergency preparedness in UNHCR functions less as a technical process than as a window into its organisational culture. Despite the agency’s extensive planning tools, early warning systems, and contingency frameworks, its responses to crises—from Syria and Venezuela to Europe and Ukraine—reveal a recurring pattern of hesitation and delayed action. Preparedness exposes internal hierarchies, political caution, and an ingrained preference for reaction over anticipation. Field offices, closest to emerging risks, often lack authority to act, while decision-making remains centralised in Geneva. The 2015 European refugee crisis epitomised these dynamics: despite clear early warnings, the UNHCR’s leadership delayed emergency activation, constrained by risk aversion and a sensitivity to its mandate. The result was an improvised, belated response that eroded both effectiveness and credibility. The chapter argues that genuine preparedness requires cultural transformation—embracing decentralised decision-making, moral courage, and proactive engagement—so that UNHCR can act with foresight rather than fear in complex humanitarian emergencies.