This study examined the spatial determinants of terrorist attacks in Maiduguri, north-eastern Nigeria, from 2010 to 2020, using traditional Risk Terrain Modelling (RTM). Data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and 20 spatial features from GRID3, remote sensing, and field collection were analysed. Findings reveal that tertiary institutions, Jumaat mosques, public offices, and hotels contribute to high-risk areas, with 100% of assassinations and 66.4% of bombings occurring in these zones. However, a significant proportion of attacks (up to 46.15%) still occur in low-risk areas. The study underscores the need to integrate spatial analysis into urban security planning (SDG 11) and strengthen governance for effective counterterrorism strategies (SDG 16), offering insights for policymakers to enhance urban resilience and safety.

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Risk Terrain Modelling: An Analysis of Spatial Features of Terrorist Attacks in Maiduguri, North Eastern Nigeria

  • Abdullahi Babagana,
  • Faisal Umar,
  • AbdulMajeed Olaremi Shittu,
  • Joy Joshua Maina

摘要

This study examined the spatial determinants of terrorist attacks in Maiduguri, north-eastern Nigeria, from 2010 to 2020, using traditional Risk Terrain Modelling (RTM). Data from the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and 20 spatial features from GRID3, remote sensing, and field collection were analysed. Findings reveal that tertiary institutions, Jumaat mosques, public offices, and hotels contribute to high-risk areas, with 100% of assassinations and 66.4% of bombings occurring in these zones. However, a significant proportion of attacks (up to 46.15%) still occur in low-risk areas. The study underscores the need to integrate spatial analysis into urban security planning (SDG 11) and strengthen governance for effective counterterrorism strategies (SDG 16), offering insights for policymakers to enhance urban resilience and safety.