Entering the 2024 election cycle there were 143 congressional seats in the American South, but only North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District was rated as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report. As a result, this sprawling, mostly rural district in the Northeastern corner of North Carolina was the subject of outsized attention, expenditures, and political activity. Using a combination of individual level data from the NC voter file, publicly available campaign finance data, and precinct level electoral return data, this chapter profiles this unique experience in southern electoral competitiveness. In addition to analyzing the election in NC-1, the chapter contextualizes this case by analyzing North Carolina’s recent redistricting changes that shifted the state’s electoral map from seven Democratic districts and seven Republicans districts to ten Republican districts, three Democratic districts, and one toss-up.

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The Lone Toss-Up in the South: The Race for North Carolina’s First Congressional District in 2024

  • Christopher A. Cooper

摘要

Entering the 2024 election cycle there were 143 congressional seats in the American South, but only North Carolina’s 1st Congressional District was rated as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report. As a result, this sprawling, mostly rural district in the Northeastern corner of North Carolina was the subject of outsized attention, expenditures, and political activity. Using a combination of individual level data from the NC voter file, publicly available campaign finance data, and precinct level electoral return data, this chapter profiles this unique experience in southern electoral competitiveness. In addition to analyzing the election in NC-1, the chapter contextualizes this case by analyzing North Carolina’s recent redistricting changes that shifted the state’s electoral map from seven Democratic districts and seven Republicans districts to ten Republican districts, three Democratic districts, and one toss-up.