Can AI Really Transform Real-World Supply Chains Anytime Soon?
摘要
In this skeptical essay (Russell, Sceptical essays, 2002), I examine the current infatuation with artificial intelligence (AI) as the panacea for the chronic maladies of real-world supply chains. Drawing upon decades of practical experience, I argue that such enthusiasm is, at best, premature and, at worst, dangerously naive. Supply chains, as they exist, are riddled with organizational dysfunctions, fragmented technologies, and deeply human foibles, conditions against which even the most sophisticated algorithms struggle ineffectively. Predictive models fail when volatility overwhelms historical data; generative systems produce plausible nonsense; agentic aspirations collapse against the stubborn complexities of reality. What is presented as a rapid and technological revolution is more accurately a slow, laborious, and uncertain evolution that demands tedious infrastructural work, cultural change, and institutional patience. The cult of AI, much like earlier infatuations with RFID and Blockchain, reflects less a rational assessment of technological capability than a recurrent human weakness: the wish to escape effort through magic. Against this, skepticism is the only reasonable posture. Real transformation will come not from marveling at the possibilities, but from grappling with the grim necessities. Through sustained thoughtful management and disciplined execution, AI can transform supply chains over the long arc of time.