The results of a study of the business environment of Ukraine in the current conditions of war and global market transformations are presented. It was found that one of the few industries that demonstrated faster adaptation to new realities and working conditions is retail and services. Since 2023, there has been a partial restoration of the main indicators of enterprise activity, some enterprises have been relocated from regions of active hostilities to safer areas and have continued to work and provide services, including developing e-commerce. In addition, since 2023, entrepreneurs’ expectations regarding positive opportunities for business development have been increasing. Factors that form threats to business activity have been identified and their impact has been ranked. The most significant factors for business development have been established as: export development, increased investment (in particular, in innovation), promoting growth in population demand for goods and services, optimizing the credit rate, promoting employment of the population. The dependence of the volume of activity on economic and financial factors is substantiated and a multifactor econometric model is built. The econometric model is proposed to be used to predict the impact of factors and choose risk management methods. Based on the correlation model, a forecast of the volume of sales of products and services by enterprises of Ukraine for 2025 is made, with a justification of the economic situation and changes in factor indicators.