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This chapter employs a data-driven approach to examine South Africa’s democratic and economic trajectory over 30 years. Drawing from statistical indicators and scenario building (foresight), the author assesses the extent to which policies such as the RDP and NDP have addressed socio-economic disparities. It critically interrogates the role of foresight, planning tools and state capacity in mitigating polycrisis outcomes. For international benchmarking, the chapter adopts Bolivia as a comparative case study similar to South Africa in terms of settler colonial history and economic consequences. Ultimately, it argues that the absence of coherent and evidence-based planning undermined development efforts and deepened structural inequalities.

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South Africa at 30: Let the Numbers Speak

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Pali Lehohla

摘要

This chapter employs a data-driven approach to examine South Africa’s democratic and economic trajectory over 30 years. Drawing from statistical indicators and scenario building (foresight), the author assesses the extent to which policies such as the RDP and NDP have addressed socio-economic disparities. It critically interrogates the role of foresight, planning tools and state capacity in mitigating polycrisis outcomes. For international benchmarking, the chapter adopts Bolivia as a comparative case study similar to South Africa in terms of settler colonial history and economic consequences. Ultimately, it argues that the absence of coherent and evidence-based planning undermined development efforts and deepened structural inequalities.