Based on investment efficiency analysis methods and the concept of the productivity growth curve (learning curve), an economic model for the renewal and operation project of the Iridium system has been developed, including the ground sector and contractual relationships with telecommunications operators. The distinction of the model lies in accounting for relations with the investor bank. Errors and failures of Iridium at the initial stage of the investment project are analyzed. During the modeling, a critical property of the credit line was identified: using the majority of the credit at the end of the credit line window, rather than at the beginning, leads to a higher net present value (NPV). For Iridium next in 2021, the NPV difference amounts to about 500 million dollars.

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Economic Model of Costs and Investment Project for the Renewal of the Telecommunications Satellite Constellation

  • Grigory A. Badikov,
  • Alexei V. Zaytsev,
  • Anna S. Semenova

摘要

Based on investment efficiency analysis methods and the concept of the productivity growth curve (learning curve), an economic model for the renewal and operation project of the Iridium system has been developed, including the ground sector and contractual relationships with telecommunications operators. The distinction of the model lies in accounting for relations with the investor bank. Errors and failures of Iridium at the initial stage of the investment project are analyzed. During the modeling, a critical property of the credit line was identified: using the majority of the credit at the end of the credit line window, rather than at the beginning, leads to a higher net present value (NPV). For Iridium next in 2021, the NPV difference amounts to about 500 million dollars.