The effectiveness of a reusable system is higher when the system’s resource capacity is greater, and the time and costs of between-flight maintenance are lower. The launch costs decrease with increased payload capacity, the number of launches per year, and the number of re-flights. In this scenario, the cost structure shifts towards a higher proportion of between-flight maintenance costs and a lower proportion of development and manufacturing costs. Therefore, an important task is to develop an economic model that takes into account the specifics of between-flight maintenance, startup, and production costs during the design phase. A model has been developed to address this issue. It is demonstrated that when the number of launches per year and the number of re-flights is less than 50, the launch costs are approximately equal to the development and manufacturing costs, with a calculation error margin. When the number of launches per year and the number of re-flights exceed 500, the launch costs can be considered as equal to the costs of flight and between-flight maintenance (repair), with a similar margin of error. A launch price of $150 million ensures the effectiveness of investment projects with a payback period of less than or equal to 2.2 years.

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Economic Model of a Reusable Space System Including Launch and Production Complexes

  • Grigory A. Badikov,
  • Julius S. Pahomov,
  • Alexey A. Azarov

摘要

The effectiveness of a reusable system is higher when the system’s resource capacity is greater, and the time and costs of between-flight maintenance are lower. The launch costs decrease with increased payload capacity, the number of launches per year, and the number of re-flights. In this scenario, the cost structure shifts towards a higher proportion of between-flight maintenance costs and a lower proportion of development and manufacturing costs. Therefore, an important task is to develop an economic model that takes into account the specifics of between-flight maintenance, startup, and production costs during the design phase. A model has been developed to address this issue. It is demonstrated that when the number of launches per year and the number of re-flights is less than 50, the launch costs are approximately equal to the development and manufacturing costs, with a calculation error margin. When the number of launches per year and the number of re-flights exceed 500, the launch costs can be considered as equal to the costs of flight and between-flight maintenance (repair), with a similar margin of error. A launch price of $150 million ensures the effectiveness of investment projects with a payback period of less than or equal to 2.2 years.