Accurate probability estimates are critical for clinical decision-making, yet many Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) methods prioritize classification performance alone. We investigate the calibration quality of various MIL aggregation strategies, comparing them against simpler instance-based probability pooling in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution ultrasound imaging scenarios. Our findings reveal that attention-based aggregators yield stronger discrimination but frequently produce overconfident predictions, leading to higher calibration errors. In contrast, simpler instance-level methods offer more reliable risk estimates, albeit with a modest reduction in classification metrics. These results underscore a trade-off between predictive strength and calibration in MIL, emphasizing the importance of evaluating both aspects for clinically robust applications.

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Calibration in Multiple Instance Learning: Evaluating Aggregation Methods for Ultrasound-Based Diagnosis

  • Axel Geysels,
  • Ben Van Calster,
  • Bart De Moor,
  • Wouter Froyman,
  • Dirk Timmerman

摘要

Accurate probability estimates are critical for clinical decision-making, yet many Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) methods prioritize classification performance alone. We investigate the calibration quality of various MIL aggregation strategies, comparing them against simpler instance-based probability pooling in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution ultrasound imaging scenarios. Our findings reveal that attention-based aggregators yield stronger discrimination but frequently produce overconfident predictions, leading to higher calibration errors. In contrast, simpler instance-level methods offer more reliable risk estimates, albeit with a modest reduction in classification metrics. These results underscore a trade-off between predictive strength and calibration in MIL, emphasizing the importance of evaluating both aspects for clinically robust applications.