How do Geopolitical Risks Affect Ship Investment Decisions?
摘要
Keeping in mind the severe effect of the recent Russo-Ukrainian war on the global economy, our study aims to address the following research questions: What is the impact of geopolitical risk (GPR) on new ship investments in bulk markets? Are ship-owners more anxious about threats or acts related to geopolitical risk? Does the impact of GPR on newbuilding orders depend on the state of the freight market? For this purpose, we use a GPR index and apply quantitative analysis. We divide our examined time series into distinctive periods based on the behavior of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), with the breaking point being the financial crisis. We then examine the nature of causality between new orders of bulkers and the GPR index. Our findings are valuable for the scientific community and practitioners, as they highlight the importance of GPR for the maritime industry and contribute to more holistic and informed decision-making. Overall, our findings can contribute to more resilient strategies in the maritime sector.