Controlling the Atom: Factors Promoting Successful Nuclear Arms Control and Disarmament Negotiations
摘要
International efforts to control nuclear weapons and their vast destructive power are as old as the bomb itself. Though it may seem that the danger these weapons pose to humans and the environment would be sufficient motivation to negotiate arms control and disarmament agreements, the evidence indicates that this motivation was neither consistent over time nor sufficient for the pursuit of these efforts. Decades after the end of the Cold War, nuclear risks are increasing, but there are few prospects for addressing these dangers. The last nuclear arms control agreement limiting U.S. and Russian strategic weapons, New START, is currently suspended and will expire in 2026. The United States is currently modernizing all three legs of its triad, Russia is building up new nuclear capabilities, and China is increasing its total nuclear arsenal. Russian nuclear saber-rattling in the context of its war in Ukraine has reminded the world that nuclear dangers persist. While prospects for nuclear limitations appear unlikely in the immediate future, what developments could lead to renewed nuclear arms control and disarmament efforts?