When the Biden administration came to power, the hope was that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) (2015), the so-called Iran nuclear deal, would be restored. Due to domestic constraints and in the case of Iran also a valid alternative, both the US and the Rohani administration played hardball during the negotiations. As the Iranian nuclear programme further advanced and the ties with Russia and China became stronger, the conservative Raisi administration was even less interested in reviving the nuclear deal. What remains are mini-deals that (if implemented) are more advantageous for Iran than for the USA. Billions of dollars of Iran are (or will be) unfrozen by the USA, while Iran’s break-out time of its nuclear programme has shrunk to nearly zero days. Although Teheran has not built the bomb yet, it is now closer to the bomb than ever. Given that the overall goal of the international community (and especially the USA) was to prevent Iran from building the bomb, one can only conclude that that policy has basically failed. Putnam’s two-level game help explain this outcome.

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Two-Level Game: Explaining the Failed Negotiations to Resurrect the JCPOA During the Biden Administration

  • Tom Sauer

摘要

When the Biden administration came to power, the hope was that the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) (2015), the so-called Iran nuclear deal, would be restored. Due to domestic constraints and in the case of Iran also a valid alternative, both the US and the Rohani administration played hardball during the negotiations. As the Iranian nuclear programme further advanced and the ties with Russia and China became stronger, the conservative Raisi administration was even less interested in reviving the nuclear deal. What remains are mini-deals that (if implemented) are more advantageous for Iran than for the USA. Billions of dollars of Iran are (or will be) unfrozen by the USA, while Iran’s break-out time of its nuclear programme has shrunk to nearly zero days. Although Teheran has not built the bomb yet, it is now closer to the bomb than ever. Given that the overall goal of the international community (and especially the USA) was to prevent Iran from building the bomb, one can only conclude that that policy has basically failed. Putnam’s two-level game help explain this outcome.