This paper analyzes Turkey’s Euphrates Shield Operation in northern Syria through the lens of Neoclassical Realism (NcR), a theory that integrates both systemic and domestic factors in foreign policy analysis. While the Turkish government framed the operation as a defensive response to threats posed by the Islamic State (IS) and the Kurdish PYD/YPG, critics viewed it as part of a broader revisionist strategy. The study explores whether Turkey’s intervention was driven by status quo-defensive concerns or revisionist-offensive objectives, and it examines both systemic-level and unit-level variables. The findings suggest that the operation reflected a hybrid logic: rooted in legitimate security threats but shaped and escalated by domestic political transformation, leadership aspirations, and a neo-Ottoman strategic vision. The creation of a Turkish-controlled buffer zone in Syria enhanced Ankara’s regional influence and challenged the existing geopolitical status quo, revealing both defensive imperatives and offensive ambitions within Turkey’s evolving foreign policy posture.

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Neoclassical Realism and Turkish Foreign Policy: Syria and the Euphrates Shield Operation

  • Zenonas Tziarras,
  • Michalis Foulias

摘要

This paper analyzes Turkey’s Euphrates Shield Operation in northern Syria through the lens of Neoclassical Realism (NcR), a theory that integrates both systemic and domestic factors in foreign policy analysis. While the Turkish government framed the operation as a defensive response to threats posed by the Islamic State (IS) and the Kurdish PYD/YPG, critics viewed it as part of a broader revisionist strategy. The study explores whether Turkey’s intervention was driven by status quo-defensive concerns or revisionist-offensive objectives, and it examines both systemic-level and unit-level variables. The findings suggest that the operation reflected a hybrid logic: rooted in legitimate security threats but shaped and escalated by domestic political transformation, leadership aspirations, and a neo-Ottoman strategic vision. The creation of a Turkish-controlled buffer zone in Syria enhanced Ankara’s regional influence and challenged the existing geopolitical status quo, revealing both defensive imperatives and offensive ambitions within Turkey’s evolving foreign policy posture.