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Transitioning to low-temperature district heating (LTDH) is an imperative approach for decarbonizing energy supply systems in the Nordic region. This study introduces a novel evaluation of scalable renovation strategies and explores the integration of renewable technologies in a real Swedish residential area. Through aggregated urban building energy modeling and statistical historic level inputs, two sets of energy efficiency retrofit scenarios together with the projected climate conditions for 2020, 2050, and 2080 are systematically analyzed to determine their impact on energy demand, peak loads, emissions, and system optimization. Both operational and embodied carbon emissions are quantified, and the techno-economic feasibility of ground source heat pumps and photovoltaic-thermal (PVT) systems is assessed. The results indicate that deep retrofit measures can achieve up to a 35% reduction in peak loads, alongside significant improvements in energy efficiency and solar energy utilization. These findings highlight the value of coupling demand-side renovations with decentralized renewable generation to facilitate the transition towards LTDH implementation and enhance urban climate resilience. This research supports district-level renovation strategies, aligning with Sweden’s pathway toward net-zero emissions.

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Evaluating Retrofit Strategies and Decentralized Systems for the Transition to Low-Temperature District Heating: A Simulation-Based Case Study in Borlänge, Sweden

  • 会议论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年

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  • Vignesh Pechiappan Ayyathurai,
  • Abdelmomen Najmadin

摘要

Transitioning to low-temperature district heating (LTDH) is an imperative approach for decarbonizing energy supply systems in the Nordic region. This study introduces a novel evaluation of scalable renovation strategies and explores the integration of renewable technologies in a real Swedish residential area. Through aggregated urban building energy modeling and statistical historic level inputs, two sets of energy efficiency retrofit scenarios together with the projected climate conditions for 2020, 2050, and 2080 are systematically analyzed to determine their impact on energy demand, peak loads, emissions, and system optimization. Both operational and embodied carbon emissions are quantified, and the techno-economic feasibility of ground source heat pumps and photovoltaic-thermal (PVT) systems is assessed. The results indicate that deep retrofit measures can achieve up to a 35% reduction in peak loads, alongside significant improvements in energy efficiency and solar energy utilization. These findings highlight the value of coupling demand-side renovations with decentralized renewable generation to facilitate the transition towards LTDH implementation and enhance urban climate resilience. This research supports district-level renovation strategies, aligning with Sweden’s pathway toward net-zero emissions.